NEW YORK — The global economy is in for some big changes in the future, but at the moment, economic growth is still staggering, insinuated an economist yesterday morning at a press conference at The Conference Board, a global economic think tank, in New York City.
In terms of economic growth in leading countries, Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, said the numbers are still low. “2.5%, maybe 3% is the most we are going to get out of the US economy. 4% growth is fantasy talk,” said Goldstein. Goldstein explained that outside of the US, economic growth is sluggish as well. Europe is only growing by about 0.5% (with Germany close to 0%).
Despite data showing rather stagnant economies, growth is likely to happen soon. “Most of the growth of the global economy is outside the US. The developing economies will move to developed in the next ten years,” predicted Goldstein.
Goldstein explained that China is growing faster than any place in the world, with Africa taking the number two spot. However, China’s economy is likely to slow down some as we move into 2013, but is still on track to blossom into an economic superpower. “It is not so much that China is expected to slow, but is expected to make the transition from developing to developed. This is huge,” said Goldstein.
In spite of that, there may be problems in China’s foreseeable future. “Instead of listening to the market, they are trying to dictate. There is a strong chance, maybe 40% or 50% that China could crash,” admitted Goldstein.
Goldstein envisions that in the future, the Middle East could be the next economic giant. “The Middle East has a lot of money, a well-educated workforce, and if they get their act together, they could be a financial hub in 2030 to 2040,” projected Goldstein.
The global economy may take an interesting turn in the near future, yet detailed predictions are still in the making. “While there are big things going on right now, big things will happen in ten to fifteen years from now. What is coming next is going to blow people’s minds,” remarked Goldstein.